In handicapped La Liga betting, deciding which teams to “follow” as the strong side and which to trust only when getting a head start matters more than picking winners in isolation. When you line up 2023/24 performance, style and pricing, different clubs clearly fit better either as the team to lay goals with or the team to take goals with, and recognising those roles can stabilise a bettor’s long‑run results.
What “playing the favourite” or “playing the underdog” really means
Backing the favourite on the handicap means assuming a team wins by more than the line—often −0.5, −1.0 or beyond—so you depend on both superiority and margin. In La Liga 2023/24, that role naturally attached to Real Madrid, Barcelona, Girona and Atlético Madrid in most domestic fixtures, yet each club’s style and scoring pattern made some handicap ranges safer than others. Underdogs, meanwhile, ranged from compact mid‑table sides that kept games tight to relegation candidates that only became tolerable with big positive lines and specific context.
Teams that generally suited favourite‑side handicaps
Real Madrid were the textbook “play the favourite” team in 2023/24: 95 points, +61 goal difference and 87 league goals show a side that not only won but often controlled matches by multiple goals. Barcelona and Girona also delivered strong attacking numbers—79 and 85 goals respectively—yet their defensive and consistency profiles were a little less dominant, which made moderate handicaps more comfortable than very aggressive ones in many spots. Atlético Madrid, with 70 goals and a +27 goal difference, often worked better with smaller lines, because their structure and game management produced more 1–0 and 2–0 scorelines than wild blowouts.
When elite sides were more dangerous to follow
Even for these strong teams, role and situation mattered. Real Madrid between Champions League ties or after heavy rotation offered less reliable margin than their season totals imply, so laying big lines whenever they appeared would have been risky despite their title‑winning strength. Barcelona’s phases of tactical adjustment and Girona’s occasional defensive wobbles also meant that handicaps beyond −1.5 needed more justification—like facing a porous defence—than the badge alone. For experienced bettors, a team was “good to follow” as a favourite only when line‑ups, schedule and opponent profile aligned with the expectation of a clear win, not simply because they sat near the top of the table.
Teams that fit better as underdogs with a head start
On the underdog side, several mid‑table clubs fit the “play with a cushion” profile: they were organised enough not to collapse, but rarely dominant enough to deserve short‑priced favourite status. Valencia, Alavés, Osasuna and Getafe all finished with points totals in the 40s and goal differences between −5 and −12, hinting at mostly competitive matches rather than regular thrashings. In practice, that made them logical candidates for +0.5 or +1.0 handicap positions, especially at home or against top‑six sides dealing with fatigue or rotation, where staying within a goal was more realistic than winning outright.
Cádiz, Rayo and other bottom‑end teams offered a more mixed picture. Their heavily negative goal differences (down to −29 for Cádiz) and low scoring meant they were often better used as teams to oppose than as underdogs to back. Only in narrow windows—home games against safe mid‑table opponents late in the season, or matches where their tactical setup clearly matched an opponent’s weakness—did plus handicaps on these sides approach something like reasonable. For most of 2023/24, betting logic treated them as reference points for favourite strength rather than as trustworthy receivers of a line.
A table‑driven snapshot of “follow” vs “take the goals” profiles
Because detailed public ATS or Asian handicap records are scarce, many bettors used basic performance indicators as a proxy for deciding who to back laying goals or taking them. The table below summarises a simplified view drawn from 2023/24 outcomes, focusing on goal difference and overall level as a rough guide to handicap roles rather than exact ROI figures.
| Preferred role (general) | Typical 2023/24 teams | Underlying reasons from season data |
| Lay goals as favourite | Real Madrid, Barcelona, Girona | High goals scored, strong GD, frequent multi‑goal wins |
| Small favourite / pick | Atlético, Athletic, Real Sociedad | Good sides, but many controlled, lower‑margin results |
| Take goals as underdog | Valencia, Alavés, Osasuna, Getafe | Competitive mid‑table records, manageable negative GD |
| Mostly oppose, not back | Cádiz, Granada, Almería | Heavy negative GD, frequent clear defeats |
Interpreted carefully, this layout shows where instinct and stats met in 2023/24: the first group generally justified minus handicaps when circumstances were favourable, the second group needed more modest lines, mid‑table grinders worked better with positive handicaps than win‑only bets, and the bottom group mainly served as the “other side” of favourite strategies. For actual staking, bettors then overlaid venue, form and line‑ups on this baseline rather than treating it as an automatic rule.
How bettors used this logic inside their regular workflows
In practice, handicaps were not chosen in isolation but as part of a weekly pattern of checks. Many experienced La Liga bettors started each round by looking at fixtures involving their preferred “follow” teams—Madrid, Girona, certain mid‑table home specialists—and then checked whether the posted lines matched their sense of the matchup. If a strong side at home faced a fragile defence and line‑ups were full strength, a −1.0 or −1.25 line could be considered; if a robust mid‑table host met a giant in a congested week, a +0.5 or +1.0 position on the underdog sometimes made sense.
Over time, users also applied self‑evaluation: if repeatedly backing a team as favourite produced big variance and little net gain, that side was downgraded from “follow” status even if the league table looked good. Conversely, if a particular club consistently kept matches close even when losing, it might be promoted into the “take the goals” category and watched more closely in future handicapped spots. That feedback loop turned 2023/24 experience into a personalised map of which La Liga sides fit each role best.
In this context, the choice of where those handicaps were placed also shaped user perceptions. Different online operators offered slightly different Asian lines, margins and early prices on La Liga spreads, so a theoretical edge could grow or vanish depending on the exact numbers available. When a bettor already had clear ideas about which teams they preferred as favourites or underdogs, using a web‑based service such as ufa168 สล็อต ufa168 was less about browsing the full coupon and more about checking whether its handicap menu and odds preserved those small structural advantages instead of diluting them.
Where the “follow or oppose” mindset failed in 2023/24
The main trap for users lay in turning “teams to follow” and “teams to oppose” into fixed labels, ignoring how quickly circumstances changed. Sevilla’s issues across this period showed how a historically strong side can become a poor favourite when structural problems surface, even if odds and public perception are slow to adapt. On the other hand, Girona’s rapid rise and some mid‑table improvements highlighted how clinging to last year’s underdog categories can leave bettors fading clubs that have genuinely stepped up in quality and should no longer be treated as automatic receivers of big lines.
Another failure came when bettors treated every match for a preferred team the same, regardless of role or price. Backing Real Madrid every week without regard for line size, opponent or schedule eventually meant paying into fully adjusted numbers where most of the edge had gone. Similarly, backing every big underdog purely for emotional reasons—“this team always fights”—ignored when injuries, morale or tactical mismatches made even generous handicaps fragile. The logic of “pick the right role” only worked when attached to probability and context, not to identity alone.
Summary
In La Liga 2023/24, teams that were “worth backing” as favourites were those whose attack, goal difference and consistency supported reasonable handicaps—most notably Real Madrid and, in the right spots, Barcelona and Girona—while others were better suited to small favourite roles or underdog positions with a line in their favour. Mid‑table grinders like Valencia, Alavés and Osasuna usually made more sense with positive handicaps than as short‑priced favourites, whereas bottom‑end sides mostly served as targets to oppose rather than to follow. For bettors, the lasting lesson is to assign each team a default role based on 2023/24 evidence, then adjust that role by venue, form and price, instead of treating every La Liga badge as equally suited to being the side you lay or take on the line.
